What will a year of heating cost in your state?
Pick your state and this calculator estimates the yearly fuel bill for a heat pump, a gas furnace and electric resistance heat, from 2024 average energy prices published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The formula and every source are below the results.
Estimated yearly heating fuel cost
Estimates, not quotes. Fuel only.
Choose your state to see the estimates.
Heat pump vs gas furnace, side by side
Your heat pump against a 95% AFUE furnace, same home, same state prices.
Heat pump
Gas furnace
95% AFUE, a year
How the estimate is calculated
Each figure is the heat your home needs in a year, in million Btu (MMBtu), times what one MMBtu of delivered heat costs with that system in your state:
- Heat pump: MMBtu × 293.07 kWh × electricity price ÷ seasonal COP, where COP = HSPF2 ÷ 3.412.
- Gas furnace: MMBtu × gas price per thousand cubic feet ÷ 1.036 MMBtu per thousand cubic feet ÷ AFUE (0.95 or 0.80).
- Electric resistance (baseboard or an electric furnace): MMBtu × 293.07 kWh × electricity price.
The side-by-side result also shows the break-even electricity price: the price per kWh at which the heat pump and a 95% furnace would cost the same, which is the 95% furnace's cost per MMBtu × COP ÷ 293.07. Below it the heat pump costs less to run; above it the furnace does. Picking a state adds it to the page address, so you can bookmark or share the result for your state.
These are the same formulas and prices as our heat pump vs furnace cost by state table, which compares all 51 at once.
Where the default heating need comes from
EIA's 2020 Residential Energy Consumption Survey measured how much energy households that heat used for it: 47.5 MMBtu a year on average in the Northeast, 55.4 in the Midwest, 20.8 in the South and 24.1 in the West (34.4 nationally). Each state uses its Census Bureau region's figure.
That is energy used, averaged across every fuel and type of equipment, not heat delivered, so it is a rough starting point. Your own bill gives a better one. A therm is 0.1 MMBtu, so a gas furnace home that burned 600 therms on heating last winter in a 95% furnace needed about 600 × 0.1 × 0.95 = 57 MMBtu.
What this estimate leaves out
- Installation and equipment cost. This is a running-cost tool only.
- Climate within a state. HSPF2 is rated for a moderate climate; in long freezing spells a heat pump delivers less heat per kWh than its rating, so its real cost is higher than shown. Cold-climate models narrow that gap.
- Your actual rates. Prices are statewide annual averages; your utility, rate plan, time-of-use pricing and the fixed monthly charge on a gas account can move either fuel well away from them.
- Propane and heating oil. The EIA dataset this page uses covers electricity and natural gas only.
- Cooling, and incentive programs, which vary by state and utility and change often.
Sources
- U.S. EIA, Electric Power Annual, Table 2.10: average residential electricity price by state, 2024
- U.S. EIA, natural gas residential price by state, 2024
- U.S. EIA, 2020 Residential Energy Consumption Survey, Table CE3.1: household site end-use consumption (released June 2023, revised March 2024)
- U.S. Census Bureau: census regions and divisions of the United States
- U.S. Department of Energy: residential heat pump efficiency standards (HSPF2 7.5 for split systems)
- ENERGY STAR: air-source heat pump key product criteria (HSPF2 7.8 for split systems, 8.1 for the ducted cold-climate level)
Prices retrieved October 2026; survey figures retrieved October 2026. All calculation happens in your browser and nothing you enter is sent anywhere.
Next steps
Read what each job involves in our guides to heat pump installation and furnace installation, and how the equipment is sized in what size heat pump, AC or furnace do I need. If you want prices for your own home, you can request a free quote from local HVAC contractors.